A modest reduction in global development challenges

Figure 2. DCI regional scores and shares of the three challenges, 2000, 2010 and 2020

Source: ESCWA calculations.

Over the past two decades, reductions on the DCI have occurred globally, from 0.485 to 0.437, and in most regions (figure 2). East Asia and the Pacific achieved the highest rate of decline. Since 2010, Latin America and the Caribbean and North America have scored higher on the DCI, although the latter, with a low score of 0.249, is the least challenged region. Consistent with HDI results, sub-Saharan Africa is the most challenged region with an average DCI score of 0.553 in 2020. The Arab region and South Asia are high-challenge regions lying well above the world average. There is a conspicuous gap between their DCI levels and those of Latin America and the Caribbean and East Asia and the Pacific.

Globally, governance is the most pressing challenge followed by sustainability. Both hold the largest shares of the global DCI, at 35 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively. Regionally, there are notable differences in the severity of the three challenges. Significant global shortfalls in governance come in part from high and rising governance challenges in the Arab region, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South and Central Asia. Challenge shares are more equally divided for sub-Saharan Africa but from 2000 to 2010, the quality of human development was a more pressing concern. In North America, lagging achievement on environmental sustainability is the most significant challenge at almost 45 per cent of the DCI score.

Figure 3. Population in each DCI category by region, 2000, 2010 and 2020

Source: ESCWA calculations.

The graduation of East Asia and the Pacific from the high-to the medium-challenge group has led to a significant drop in the share of the world population living with significant challenges, from 60 per cent in 2000 to 36 per cent in 2020. There has been little movement in the very high-to high-challenge group, however (figure 3). The population share living in countries with very low challenges increased from 2 to 5 per cent between 2000 and 2020. These countries are mainly from East Asia and the Pacific and Europe. In the low DCI group, Canada and the United States hold the majority of people. Despite some improvements, nearly 3.5 billion people still live in countries facing serious constraints to development, as indicated by the population shares in the very high-and high-challenge groups. Without the gains made by East Asia and the Pacific, specifically by China, the world’s DCI picture in 2020 would look nearly identical to that of 2000.

Figure 4. Least (green) and most (red) challenged countries globally on the DCI, 2020

Source: ESCWA calculations.

Among countries, Haiti scored highest on the DCI worldwide at 0.658. Switzerland was the least challenged country with a score of 0.124 (figure 4). The scores are consistent with the DCI conceptual framework where even the least challenged countries still have development shortfalls to address, while even the most challenged countries have reduced their challenges, albeit at a minimal level. As expected, the most challenged countries are mainly from sub-Saharan Africa while the least challenged are mainly European.

The largest deteriorations in DCI ranks over 2000-2020 were mainly in the Arab region and Latin America and the Caribbean. Several countries in these two regions saw a rise in between-country inequalities in human development outcomes, especially since 2010, often related to conflict. The largest improvements in rank often came in countries that in 2000 had severe deprivations in one or more DCI dimensions. Myanmar and Rwanda initially had very high challenges from years of conflict. Post-Soviet countries such as Azerbaijan, Georgia and Uzbekistan had high challenges in all three dimensions but have made significant improvements in the last two decades (figure 5).

Figure 5. Top 10 deteriorations (left) and improvements (right) on DCI ranks, 2000-2020

Source: ESCWA calculations.

Note: A positive change means an improvement in the rank while a negative change means a deterioration.